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Political Commentary
Pierre Gemayel Assassination--A False Flag Operation?
This week unknown gunmen assassinated Lebanese Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, a critic of Syria. As do most Lebanese, Gemayel's father Amin (the former Lebanese president) as well as the son of assassinated Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri immediately blamed Syria for the killing. Link and Link. US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton also immediately blamed Syria. Here and there on the internet, some have begun to question whether Syria was truly behind the assassination of Gemayel. I highly suspect the assassination of Gemayel was a false flag operation carried out by the intelligence wings of the Neocons / Israelis (two heads of the same coin). When the term "Israelis" is used, I mean the hard line faction that controls the current government and orchestrated the execution of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
I base this hypothesis on the following:
- Syria stands to lose international influence as a result of its suspected involvement in this assassination;
- Syria gains nothing from the assassination;
- Israel and the Neocons gain from the assassination in two respects: (1) derail planned Hezbollah countrywide protests against the current Lebanese government and (2) thwart the overtures of the Baker Group and Tony Blair to involve Syria in stabilizing Iraq.
After the disaster that befell the Republican Party in the November elections, the advisors of Bush the elder (most notably James Baker) have regained influence in the White House. They were behind the sacking of Donald Rumsfeld much to the chagrin of Dick Cheney and his Neocon brethren. The Republican Party got pasted mainly due to the increasingly unpopular Iraq War. Baker has been the Bush family bag man for decades. His job is to salvage what he can of the family honor tarnished by the W Bush presidency. In order to extract the US from Iraq, Baker was to spearhead engagement with both Syria and Iran. The Gemayel assassination makes engagement difficult.
"This ugly crime [Gemayel assassination] takes place today in Lebanon and the U.S. administration would feel that this would give them the opportunity to [avoid] engaging with Syria," [Syria expert Joshua Landis] said. "Despite our sincere and serious efforts to try to help stabilize the situation in iraq and support the political process there, there are very important, very influential political figures here in the United States who fiercely oppose such an engagement," Moustapha said. The idea of talking to Syria was controversial within the Bush administration even before Gemayel's murder, said Steven Simon of the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. * * * In exchange for help on Iraq, Syria would almost certainly demand that the United States accept Hezbollah's strong influence in Lebanon, Landis notes. Link (Emphasis added.)
There was to have been an Iran-Syria summit in Tehran this week but Syria has decided to hunker down in light of the new international pressure upon it. link. Syria is already the subject of an international investigation into the death of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.
The current Lebanese central government is an ally of the US but is very unpopular with its own people. Hezbollah, having just beaten back Israel in its recent invasion of (and rampage through) Lebanon, is at a high water mark for popularity within Lebanon. "Hezbollah has been forced to put the planned anti-government rallies announced earlier by its leader Sheik Hasan Nasrallah on hold. Instead, Gemayel’s funeral yesterday was the focus of a massive demonstration by anti-Syrian and pro-government forces." Link. Thus, the assassination has been successful in at least temporarily propping up the current government of Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora as desired by the US and Israel.
Gemayel belonged to the so-called March 14 group allied with the US and, to a lesser extent, Israel. Would the Neocons / Israelis kill an ally in order to further their own objectives? A legitimate question but one I really do not think there could be any serious doubt about. One need only reflect on the case of the USS Liberty for an answer. Furthermore, as previously mentioned, if you concur that they killed Rabin (faithful Jewish leader that he was), does one really question whether they would terminate a shaky Lebanese ally to further their agenda in the region?
JJR
11-24-2006
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