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Afghanistan War--Path To Anarchy In Nuclear Pakistan
 
President Obama recently returned home from his triumphal trip to Europe. He was fawned over by the European press. Michelle Obama put a glamour smack-down on Carla Bruni. Aside from economic discussion at the G20, President Obama had one foreign policy objective on this trip--gain European support for his surge in the Afghan War. On this front, he failed miserably. Not one European nation pledged to increase its troop commitment to Afghanistan. In fact, the bulk of the European troops are scheduled for withdrawal in the coming years. America again marches alone in a war. And by announcing a surge with the avowed goal of "winning", Obama has made Afghanistan his war.
It's stange how America got to this position. Immediately after 9-11, the US demanded the handover of Osama bin Laden from the Taliban. Had the Taliban complied, the US would not have invaded Afghanistan nor installed a new government in that country. In truth, prior to 9-11 the US government had no problem with the Taliban outside of bin Laden. Then we invaded ostensibly with the primary goal of catching bin Laden. That goal was pissed away at Tora Bora not long into the conflict. The US appears either unwilling or unable to capture bin Laden who hides inside Pakistan in the mountainous boarder region near Afghanistan. Not just bin Laden but the bulk of the Taliban fighters had set up operations in the Pakistan provence that boarders Afghanistan.
Although not well known in the United States, the US military has been bombing this area of Pakistan mercilessly with drone aircraft.
American drone attacks on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan are causing a massive humanitarian emergency, Pakistani officials claimed after a new attack yesterday killed 13 people. * * * As many as 1 million people have fled their homes in the Tribal Areas to escape attacks by the unmanned spy planes as well as bombings by the Pakistani army. In Bajaur agency entire villages have been flattened by Pakistani troops under growing American pressure to act against Al-Qaeda militants, who have made the area their base. Timesonline.
When bolders start rolling down the hill, no one know what they smash. The flushing of the Taliban out of Afghanistan into Pakistan has had the unintended consequence of destabilizing the weak central government in Pakistan that had been friendly to the United States. Gen. Musharraf resigned from office. His successor, Ali Zardari, holds on by his fingernails. Zardari's hold on office is so tenuous that he has ceded control of a large swath of the territory of Pakistan to the the Taliban and the extremists. Pakistani Peace Deal Gives New Clout to Taliban Rebels.
"Pakistan is on a rapid trajectory toward becoming a failing or failed state," says the report of the Atlantic Council task force, led by Chuck Hagel, the former Nebraska senator, and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. "We cannot stress the magnitude of the dangers enough nor the need for greater action now. Pakistan faces dire economic and security threats that threaten both the existence of Pakistan as a democratic and stable state and the region as a whole." Link.
Here is the deal. Pakistan shall become a Taliban controlled state very shortly. That's Afghanistan circa 2001 with 100 nuclear weapons. Here is another unavoidable fact: the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan want Islamic governments. No amount of bombing, special forces operations or spy satellites are going to change that. Wars of insurgency are always about winning the hearts and minds of people. We have lost that war (if it was ever winnable). The surge in Afghanistan only exacerbates a very bad situation.
The only reasonable course under these circumstances is to pull the troops out. Turn Afghanistan over to the people of that country. Open diplomatic dialog with the Taliban. Accept that there is no military option for preventing an Islamic fundamentalist takeover of Pakistan.
JJR
4-14-2009
(Commentary)
Update: Afghan women pelted by stones while protesting law legalizing husband's rape of wife. Remember that the majority of Afghan marriages are arranged. And these are the people yearning for American style democracy? Please.
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