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Article Archives (11-3-2004)
What's a 527 to do?
At this writing Bush is ahead 130,000 votes in Ohio with an estimated 150,000 provisional ballots yet to be acted upon. Although the mathematical certainty of a Bush victory has not yet come upon us, the fat lady is already singing. Behind closed doors, the hand wringing has already begun in democratic circles and all those who supported Kerry in the election. The committed donkeys have limited choices for the future--find a winning strategy to defeat the Bush coalition of the wealthy, rural voters, and evangelicals. In 2 successive elections the donkeys have come very close yet, ultimately, come up short. My guess--they'll only tweak the formula and carry on as before. Donkeys and elephants are stubborn creatures not given to changing course on a dime.
But what about the progressive 527s, organizations such as MoveOn.org and America Coming Together? How will the election defeat effect them? These organizations are not tied to any one political party per se. I've seen estimates that 527s spent in excess of $100 million in 2004 in support of the Kerry campaign. The 527s need to sit down and take a long look in the mirror. The cold hard fact is that betting such vast sums upon the head of one man is probably not wise. My suggestion would be that the 527s consider becoming issue oriented organizations as opposed to a phenomenon of the presidential election cycle. As it stands right now, that $100 million and countless thousands of volunteer hours spent on the Kerry campaign went for naught (although the exercise in organization and the voter contact database have value going forward). What if those same resources had been spent identifying and supporting progressive, fiscally responsible congressional candidates? Might going further down into the roots of the grass yield better results upon the lawn that is our national policy? Bush controls not only the presidency but both houses of congress at this moment. Progressives are toast for at least the next four years. Do the 527s just hunker down and wait 4 years to plunk a fortune down at the feet of the next presidential donkey? I hope not. I wish for them to see that they have a roll to play in politics from the bottom up and not just at the top of the game.
Howard Dean, the man of a thousand screams, may be the guy out of all the players in the 2004 election who has the greatest impact going forward upon electorial politics in this country. He founded a political action committed called Democracy For America that has dove into the roots of the grass. Here is a quote from their mission statement: "This organization will rebuild the Democratic Party from the bottom up—-it will take time, but we must start building a base now for the future." I was able to observe the Dean team in action during the 2004 primary for the congressional seat of Dick Gebhardt (Missouri's 3rd Congressional District, my home district). The Deaniacs backed an unknown 30 year-old political science teacher, Jeff Smith, with no experience in elective office nor work experience outside of schools. On top of that, his physical presence did not inspire (slight of statute and talks with a lisp). His main opponent was the son of deceased and beloved former governor Mel Carnahan (the man who beat Ashcroft for a senate seat from the grave). To make a long story short, using the Dean play book for internet organization emphasizing meetings with small groups of citizens, Smith came within an eyelash of defeating Carnahan (1800 votes). The Dean formula works and, over time, if these people stick with it they shall succeed in electing large numbers of progressive candidates to local, state and federal offices.
As for Kerry, he fought the good fight but chose to focus on Iraq. In retrospect, might his vote to authorize the president to go to war in Iraq have made the hill too high to climb aboard the Iraq camel? Given the strength of that premise, should not Lieutenant Kerry have focused more attention upon domestic issues--i.e., the budget deficit ($500 billion per year and counting), lapse of assault weapons ban, education, the fiasco that is the president's prescription drug plan? That's all water under the bridge right now. Kerry came from way back after the Republican convention and, when the smoke clears, will fall about 50,000 votes short in Ohio. He bears no shame for his performance.
JJR
11-3-2004
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